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Yet, this is just an issue of probability theory
Of the substitution in the (1), i’ve:
This illustration of Bayes’ Theorem works together with the straightforward circumstances where you have a couple hypotheses H and J which might be collectively private and together exhaustive, and in which one is searching for \(\Pr(H \mid E)\), that is, the probability kissbridesdate.com Finn lenker you to definitely H is true offered research E. What so it instance of Bayes’ Theorem does was promote one which have a way of calculating you to definitely chances, so long as one to understands, to start with, \(\Pr(H)\) and you may \(\Pr(J)\)-which is, the fresh new good priori analytical likelihood of \(H\) and you can \(J\)-and then have, second, \(\Pr(Age \mid H)\) and you will \(\Pr(Age \middle J)\)-that’s, the newest analytical odds of \(E\) considering, respectively, simply \(H\) and simply \(J\).
But now Draper brings up one or two substantive says. The first is that the a beneficial priori odds of the latest theory regarding apathy is not less than the brand new a good priori probability of theism, so i’ve
Draper’s next substantive claim is the fact that the combination away from propositions on the satisfaction and you can serious pain to which Draper relates, and you can that’s illustrated by \(O\)’ is much more more likely real in case the theory regarding apathy holds true than if theism is true.
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